Long-run Employment in Australian Construction 1986 - 2025
Industry and occupation data for construction and related industries
There is a widely held view that one of the biggest problems in Australian construction is a lack of workers. The previous post was on Infrastructure Australia’s 2025 report on industry capacity and their estimate of a current shortage of 202,000 infrastructure workers and a peak shortage of 420,000 workers in 2027. The Housing Industry Association says there is an 83,000 ‘tradies shortfall’, and the Master Builders Association’s 2024 Future of the Workforce report said the industry needed to replace 110,000 retirements a year plus another 130,000 workers required to meet demand, a total of 240,000.
How accurate and realistic are these claims? Without doubt there are local shortages of workers, especially in regional areas where supply is limited by the size and age of the local population, because the regions are typically older and this is where many of the transmission lines and energy generation projects are located. Also, when too many major projects are commenced at the same time there will be labour shortages and cost increases, like the three Queensland LNG plants in 2014, transport projects in Sydney and Melbourne over the last few years, and probably for the 2032 Olympic Games in Brisbane. However, overwhelming the supply chain by simultaneously running too many major projects is evidence of poor understanding of the industry and management of the major project pipeline, not of worker shortages.
Industry capacity for construction is not like manufacturing or other industries with fixed plant and equipment and factories. In a factory or power plant the quantity and availability of that fixed capital puts an identifiable physical limit on output. In construction there will be an upper limit on capacity, but that is not fixed in the same way because output can always be increased by adding more workers, which is what happened in the apartment boom between 2015 and 2018.
The other way construction adjusts to increasing demand is increasing project delivery times. Capacity is limited by availability, and resources get spread over more work as new projects are started. Materials supply is fixed in the short-run, and the available labour supply will get exhausted. The result is fewer people on a site and slower progress of ongoing work. At high levels of demand, lead times and cycle times increase and there are more bottlenecks in the supply chain.
In 2025 there are 1.35 million people employed in Construction, and another 330,000 in Architecture, engineering and surveying. In fact, there are more people employed now than at any time in the past, with Construction employment at record highs. This is also the case for many of the trades and professional services. How can the reports and forecasts of shortages be reconciled with the data?
This post looks at the long-run data on employment in construction and related industries and occupations, which is available from 1986 to 2025 from Jobs and Skills Australia. The data shows trends over time, not current conditions. However, changes in employment patterns happen slowly, and trends clearly show those changes, and are powerful indicators of the number of people that may be employed in the near future.
Jobs and Skills Australia Data
In the following figures the number of people employed is based on Jobs and Skills Australia (JSA) Industry Trends and Occupation Trends, that use data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Labour Force Survey smoothed by JSA to identify long-term trends. While the ABS does seasonal adjustment and trending at aggregate levels, the ABS detailed industry and occupation data are released as original data series only. JSA provides disaggregated data for those detailed labour force estimates, in ‘a heavily smoothed long-term trend’ that will not reflect short-term changes in current conditions. The JSA Trending Methodology is explained here.
Industry Data
The ABS industry classification system has four levels: Division, Subdivision, Group and Class. Construction is Division E, and Table 1 has the breakdown of the industry into its three Subdivisions, eight Groups and twenty-four Classes. JSA’s Industry Trends uses this classification system and employment data is available from 1986.
Table 1. Division E Construction
Source: ABS Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification
Occupation Data
JSA employment by occupation data is available as Occupation Trends from 1986. An ‘occupation’ is defined as a group of similar tasks or jobs based on five skill levels and skill specialisations like knowledge, tools and materials. The classification system has five levels: eight major groups, 53 sub-major groups, 111 minor groups, 421 unit groups, and 1,156 occupations [1]. There are also workers in a ‘not further defined’ (nfd) category, who cannot be classified to an occupation but are included in a group. There is a loose alignment with the industry classification system at the sub-group level, but it is not exact. Using Bricklayers as an example of the classification structure:
Major Group – Technicians and Trades Workers
Sub-major Group – Building Structural Trades Workers
Minor Group – Bricklayers, Stonemasons and Concreters
Unit Group – Bricklayers and Stonemasons
Occupation - Bricklayers
Construction Employment
Figure 1 shows the effect of JSA’s smoothing of the quarterly rises and falls in Construction employment into a long-term trend line. The figure shows the increase in the total number employed in since 1986, with the value of work done adjusted for inflation (the ABS chain volume measure of output) for comparison. The relationship is clear, except for the mining boom that started in 2007 and ran to 2104. Because expenditure on imported plant and equipment like oil platforms, mining machinery and gas liquefaction systems was included in the value of construction work done during the mining boom, this artificially boosted its value before falling once the boom was over.
Figure 1. Employment and work done
Note: Work done is chain volume measure, seasonally adjusted trend.
Sources: ABS 8755 and JSA Industry Trends.
Apart from the mining boom there are three points of interest. The first is the sustained rise in both work done and employment from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, as employment closely tracked the increasing value of work done. The second is the sharp increase in employment in 2015 at the start of the residential building and apartment boom that followed the mining boom. The third is the three years after 2021 as employment increased faster than work done, which increased with excessive HomeBuilder subsidies and grants [2]. In August 2021 there were 1.148 million people employed in Construction, in August 2022 that had risen to 1.242 million, in August 2023 to 1.321 million, and in August 2024 1.342 million were employed. This was an increase of almost 200,000 in three years, of which 120,000 were in Construction services as a result of the apprentice incentive schemes introduced during the Pandemic.
Construction Contractors
Figure 2 has employment by the three contractor groups. The 512,700 total includes trades directly employed by these firms as well as other professionals, managers and office workers. There are also workers in a ‘not further defined’ (nfd) category, who cannot be classified to an occupation but are included in the Building subdivision. The rapid increase in their numbers over the last few years suggests many of these workers are in new occupations not yet in the classification system, examples could be BIM managers, heat pump and solar panel installers. The increase in Building nfd started with the Covid incentive schemes.
Figure 2. Employment by contractor groups
Source: JSA Industry Trends
In Engineering there has been a significant structural shift in the ratio of professionals to technicians. In 1986 there were two Civil engineering professionals to each Civil engineering draftsperson and technician, by 2025 there were five professionals for each draftsperson and technician.
Figure 3. Civil Engineering
Source: JSA Occupation Trends
Figure 4 has the number employed for Construction managers and Trades workers. Between 1986 and 2025 the number of managers increased from 43,300 to 131,400 and Trades workers from 244,400 to 414,000. What is significant is the change in the ratio of managers to workers, which was just over 6 in the late 1990s and early 2000s but then fell to 3.2 in the 2020s. Between 2006 and 2025 the number of managers doubled, from 61,200 to 131,400, while trades workers went from 344,500 to 414,000, so over those two decades the increase in both was almost the same at 70,200 for managers and 69,500 for trades workers. For every extra trades worker there was another manager. This is telling us something important about the industry, and is probably one of the reasons there has been no increase in measured productivity.
Figure 4. Construction managers and Trades workers
Source: JSA Occupation Trends
JSA defines Construction Managers as workers who ‘plan, organise, direct, control and coordinate the construction of civil engineering projects, buildings and dwellings, and the physical and human resources involved in building and construction.’ Their tasks are: interpret drawings and specifications, coordinate labour and implement work programs, coordinate procurement and delivery of materials, plant and equipment, prepare tenders and bids, ensure adherence to building legislation and standards, arrange inspections, and negotiate with stakeholders. Construction Managers are broken down into two specific roles. In 2025 there were 60,200 Construction project managers and 47,800 Project builders. Construction Project Managers manage civil engineering and building projects, while Project Builders manage the construction, alteration and renovation of dwellings and other buildings.
Construction Trades
Figure 5 has the five Construction services industry groups. Building installation services have had the largest increase in numbers, from 105,000 in 1986 to 320,000 workers in 2025, and is now by far the largest group. The other group with a significant increase is Building completion services, which increased from 76,000 to 210,000 and is the second largest group. These groups both rose by around three times. They include electrical, HVAC, plumbing, carpentry and painting, and the increase in their numbers reflects increasing complexity and the rising share of building services in the total cost.
Other building services had the biggest increase of over four times, going from 31,000 in 1986 to 134,000 in 2025, with most of that increase due to Machinery operators. Building structure employment increased from to 106,000, and Land development and site preparation had the smallest increase of only 26,000 workers, going from 31,000 to 57,000.
Figure 5. Employment in Construction services groups
Source: JSA Industry Trends
Figures 6, 7 and 8 have employment by occupation for construction trades, grouped by size. Electricians are by far the largest. Figure 6 has the three largest occupations and shows a significant increase in the number of electricians and plumbers, both of whose numbers have more than doubled since the mid-1990s. In Figure 7, over the last couple of decades the number of Bricklayers has fallen and the number of Plasterers barely changed, however there are more Painting trades people.
Figure 6. Carpenters, electricians and plumbers
Source: JSA Occupation Trends
Figure 7. Bricklayers, painters and plasterers
Source: JSA Occupation Trends
Figure 8 has the four smallest trades of Floor finishers, Glaziers and Tilers. The number of Wall and floor tilers has more than doubled to over 22,000, but Floor finishers, Glaziers and Roof tilers each have around 10,000 workers, have had no increase over the last two decades, and are the trades occupations with the lowest numbers.
Figure 8. Floor finishers, glaziers and tilers
Source: JSA Occupation Trends
There have been small increases in the number of Crane, hoist and lift operators and Earthmoving plant operators. The former went from 12,200 in 1986 to 16,900 in 2025, while Earthmoving plant operator numbers increased from 38,600 to 49,100. This interesting because there has been little increase in the number of machinery operators but a large increase in the volume of work done. The Q3 2025 RLB Crane Index had 845 cranes in use in Australia, above the long-term average of 775.
Figure 9. Crane and earthmoving operators
Source: JSA Occupation Trends
Finally, Figure 10 has Construction and mining labourers. There was a total of 192,100 in 2025, almost all in construction. The two largest occupations are Building and plumbing labourers with 71,500 and Concreters with 37,200 employed in 2025. For the other occupations, Structural steel and Insulation had around 25,000, and Fencers 13,000.
Figure 10. Construction labourers
Source: JSA Occupation Trends
Professional and Technical Services
Figure 11 has Construction work done and employment in the Architectural, engineering and technical services industry group that is part of the Scientific, technical and professional services industry. Employment increased from in 1986 to in 2025. The JSA smoothed trend shows a remarkably consistent increase. The overall pattern is similar to Construction work, with a turning point in the mid-1980s when the growth rate sharply increased, a flattening out of growth in the mid-2010s, and higher recent growth.
Figure 11. Professional services and work done
Note: Work done is chain volume measure.
Sources: ABS 8755 and JSA Industry Trends
Figure 12 has the number of architects and surveyors. They total 51,000 in 2025, of which 29,600 were Architects and landscape architects, however on the JSA website in 2025 there were 3,800 Landscape architects and 19,300 Architects. Thus there are around 6,000 other employed people in this category who are neither, which may be where people working on digital twins and BIM end up because Architects prepare ‘project documentation, including sketches and scale drawings, and integrate structural, mechanical and aesthetic elements in final designs.’
Figure 12. Architects and surveyors
Source: JSA Occupational Trends
Figure 13 has two other occupations. In 2025 there were 173,700 Contract, program and project administrators, and their numbers have steadily increased from only 14,000 in 1988, and in 1986 there were 30,500 Architectural, building and surveying technicians with 83,800 employed in 2025. These employees would be spread across a number of industry groups based on the classification of their employer as a construction contractor or subcontractors, architecture or surveying practice, or project manager (classified as a business service).
Figure 13. Technicians and administrators
Source: JSA Occupation Trends
Construction Manufacturing Industries
Along with trade and contractor employment there are many people employed in manufacturing industries that supply construction. Onsite construction brings together a wide range of materials and components, for example a detached house would typically have around five thousand different items and a ten story office building could have up to fifty thousand items. The following figures have the industry employment data for seven manufacturing industries that produce construction inputs.
Figure 14. Timber and wood products
Source: JSA Industry Trends
The general pattern in manufacturing has been a long-term decline in employment, but there is wide variation. In Figure 14, Sawmilling and timber dressing employment has fallen from 17,000 in 1986 to almost halve by 2025 at 9,000, while Other wood products has only declined by 4,000 workers, from 31,000 to 27,000 in 2025. In Figure 15, Structural steel has not changed but Other fabricated metal fell from 51,000 in 1996 to 21,000 in 2014, while Heating, compressors and ventilation equipment employment has no changed.
Figure 15. Metal and HVAC
Source: JSA Industry Trends
In Figure 16, employment in glass products has been quite stable, also in Ceramic products after 2006. The big decline has been in Cement and concrete, falling from 26,000 in 1986 to 11,000 in 2025. That is not because less cement and concrete is being produced. Although the ABS no longer publishes production volumes, the industry output and value added for the Cement, lime, plaster and concrete manufacturing industry class has continued to increase as employment fell.
Figure 16. Concrete, glass and ceramics
Source: JSA Industry Trends
Conclusion
The Jobs and Skills Australia (JSA) employment data this post uses goes back to 1986. It is available as Industry Trends, at the five ANZSIC levels, and as Occupation Trends, for over 1,000 different occupations. The JSA trending methodology is particularly good at clarifying long-term trends as it smooths the ups and downs in the quarterly data from the ABS Labour Force survey, and by disaggregating and trending the ABS data for industry classes and occupations it provides detailed data on the workforce not available elsewhere.
What does the data say? First, the long-run trend for total Construction employment shows it increasing, and the trend in employment has tracked changes in the volume of work done, with the exception being the unusual circumstances of the mining boom. This is particularly noticeable with the sharp increases in employment in the late 2010s during the apartment boom and then after 2021 with the introduction of HomeBuilder subsidies and apprentice incentive schemes. This suggests that in the right circumstances employment numbers in Construction can be increased quickly. In particular, the combination of a rapid rise in work and the highly effective apprentice incentive schemes introduced in 2021 led to a rapid increase in the number of trades people employed.
Second, there have been a few occupations with very large increases, notably Contract, program and project administrators at 173,000 have twelve times as many people employed in 2025 compared to 1986. Many of those workers will be employed by contractors, and have contributed to the rise in employment seen in the Residential building and Engineering industry groups. In Construction services Installation and Building completion services had much larger increases than the other industry groups, and the occupations Electricians, Plumbers and Wall and floor tilers have doubled employment since 2006.
Third, many of the trade occupations have had little or no growth in numbers since 2006. Bricklayers, concreters, roof tilers, floor finishers, plasterers and glaziers are all in this category. There has been no growth in the Land development and site preparation industry group, reflected in the stable number of earthmoving operators over the last few decades. However, the number of Crane, hoist and lift operators has increased by half since 2006 to 17,000.
Fourth is the role of technicians. In 2025 there were 51,000 Architects and Surveyors, but 83,000 Architecture, building and surveying technicians, increasing from 31,000 in 1986. Engineering went the other way. From two Civil engineering professionals to each Civil engineering draftsperson and technician in 1986, by 2025 there were five professionals for each draftsperson and technician.
Fifth is the change in the ratio of Construction managers to trades workers, which was just over 6 in the late 1990s and early 2000s but fell to 3.2 in the 2020s. Between 2006 and 2025 for every extra trades worker there was another manager, as the number of managers went from 61,200 to 131,400 and trades workers went from 344,500 to 414,000, with the increase in both almost the same at 70,200 for managers and 69,500 for trades workers. Along with the increased number of Contract, program and project administrators, this must be part of the explanation of the low rate of productivity growth in the industry.
If changes in employment trends vary greatly across the industry groups and occupations what do the forecasts of worker shortages mean? Do shortages mean projects are not started because workers are not available, or lead times increase, or projects take longer to deliver because the workforce is spread over many projects? Are there more delays and bottlenecks due to such shortages? Sudden or rapid rises in commencements will make completions take longer. The example of residential building during the HomeBuilder Program is clear in Figure 17. The program quickly increased housing commencements to record levels but completion times also increased, and it took three years to complete the extra 100,000 houses commenced in 2020 and 2021. Completion times for houses doubled during the pandemic.
Figure 17. Residential building
Obviously, there will be shortages at certain times in certain places, but those specific instances should not be generalised to the industry. Equally, sudden shifts in demand, like large infrastructure projects or the current energy transition, can have short-term shortages. Without suggesting there are no and will never be any shortages, claims about current and future shortages have to be seen as just that, they are claims not facts.
Another problem is the short-term nature of forecasts of shortages. They are typically only a few years into the future, and the long-term data clearly shows employment in the industry adjusts to both the level of demand and the demand for specific skills. The industry groups of Residential building and Engineering have seen solid increases in employment over the last couple of decades, and that is where the demand has been, and the increase in the number of electricians and project administrators reflects changes in the demand for skills.
Construction is a project-based industry, and capacity is largely determined by the availability of labour, skills and expertise. Output is affected by factors like weather, regulations, materials supply, and project timelines. The industry requires specialised skills and uses subcontracting, so the industry is fragmented and has many small firms, but adding firms also increases capacity. All those characteristics make it difficult to define the maximum output for the industry, so claims and forecasts of worker and skill shortages are at best estimates that reflect assumptions about the ability of the industry to adapt and grow. The long-run data shows Construction employment tracks the level of work done, the exception being the mining boom, and has seen the number of people employed increase when demand and the volume of work increase. Capacity is a concept that has to be used carefully for the construction industry, balancing an estimate of maximum output with the effect on project performance of high levels of activity.
[1] In 2026, the 2006 Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) will be replaced by the 2024 Occupation Standard Classification for Australia (OSCA) for collection and publication of occupation statistics. OSCA increases the number of occupations and groups to reflect changes in the labour market. For example, the Sub-major Group Construction Trades Workers will be split into two Sub-major groups of Building Completion and Related Trades Workers, and Building Structural Trades Workers.
[2] This post was on the COVID HomeBuilder Program.
This is a great post Gerard. I have two points:
1. Using the data and conventional building value chains, we can analyse where the bottlenecks lie. For instance, there’s talk of a housing shortage (caused by over migration) but when one considers the value chain of dwelling construction, the root is engineering and earthworks. Your analysis shows little change in employment for this sub sector. Its also the primary constraint I hear in discussions with land developers. Another factor regarding earth work is the lack of labour productivity, in that there’s only one operator of an excavator, and productivity can really only meaningfully increase with additional investment in equipment.
2. Could the increase in construction management be attributed to increases in safety and compliance in the construction sector?
Thanks Gerard
Is the relative rise in the number of electricians due to the solar panel industry?